Obesity, Ethnicity, and Covid-19 Mortality: A population-based cohort study of 12.6 Million Adults in England

ImportanceObesity and ethnicity are well characterised risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes, but the differential effects of obesity on COVID-19 outcomes by race/ethnicity has not been examined robustly in the general population. ObjectiveTo investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and COVID-19 mortality across different ethnic groups. Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis is a retrospective cohort study using linked national Census, electronic health records and mortality data for English adults aged 40 years or older who were alive at the start of pandemic (24th January 2020). ExposuresBMI obtained from electronic health records. Self-reported ethnicity (white, black, South Asian, other) was the effect-modifying variable. Main Outcomes and MeasuresCOVID-19 related death identified by ICD-10 codes U07.1 or U07.2 mentioned on the death certificate from 24th January 2020 until December 28th 2020. ResultsThe analysis included white (n = 11,074,708; mean age 61.9 [{+/-}13.4] years; 54% women), black (n = 416,542; 56.4 [{+/-}11.7] years; 57% women), South Asian (621,691; 55.7 [{+/-}12.4] years; 51% women) and other (n = 478,196; 55.3 [{+/-}11.6] years; 55% women) ethnicities with linked BMI data. The association between BMI and COVID-19 mortality was stronger in ethnic minority groups. Compared to a BMI of 22.5 kg/m2 in white ethnicities, the adjusted HR for COVID-19 mortality at a BMI of 30 kg/m2 in white, black, South Asian and other ethnicities was 0.95 (95% CI: 0.87-1.03), 1.72 (1.52-1.94), 2.00 (1.78-2.25) and 1.39 (1.21-1.61), respectively. The estimated risk of COVID-19 mortality at a BMI of 40 kg/m2 in white ethnicities (HR = 1.73) was equivalent to the risk observed at a BMI of 30.1 kg/m2, 27.0 kg/m2, and 32.2 kg/m2 in black, South Asian and other ethnic groups, respectively. ConclusionsThis population-based study using linked Census and electronic health care records demonstrates that the risk of COVID-19 mortality associated with obesity is greater in ethnic minority groups compared to white populations. QuestionDoes the association between BMI and COVID-19 mortality vary by ethnicity? FindingsIn this study of 12.6 million adults, BMI was associated with COVID-19 in all ethnicities, but with stronger associations in ethnic minority populations such that the risk of COVID-19 mortality for a BMI of 40 kg/m2 in white ethnicities was observed at a BMI of 30.1 kg/m2, 27.0 kg/m2, and 32.2 kg/m2 in black, South Asian and other ethnicities, respectively. MeaningBMI is a stronger risk factor for COVID-19 mortality in ethnic minorities. Obesity management is therefore a priority in these populations.

Association of working shifts, inside and outside of healthcare, with risk of severe COVID-19: An observational study

BackgroundHealth and key workers are at an increased risk of developing severe COVID-19; it is not known, however, if this risk is exacerbated in those with irregular work patterns. We aimed to investigate the risk of severe COVID-19 in health and shift workers. MethodsWe included UK Biobank participants in employment or self-employed at baseline and with linked COVID-19 data to 31st August 2020. Participants were grouped as neither a health worker nor shift worker (reference category), health worker only, shift worker only, or both and associations with severe COVID-19 investigated in logistic regressions. FindingsOf 235,685 participants (81{middle dot}5% neither health nor shift worker, 1{middle dot}4% health worker only, 16{middle dot}9% shift worker only, and 0{middle dot}3% both), there were 580 (0{middle dot}25%) cases of severe COVID-19. The risk of severe COVID-19 was higher in health workers (adjusted odds ratio: 2.32 [95% CI: 1{middle dot}33, 4{middle dot}05]; shift workers (2{middle dot}06 [1{middle dot}72, 2{middle dot}47]); and in health workers who worked shifts (7{middle dot}56 [3{middle dot}86, 14{middle dot}79]). Being both a health worker and a shift worker had a possible greater impact on the risk severe COVID-19 in South Asian and Black and African Caribbean ethnicities compared to White individuals. InterpretationBoth health and shift work were independently associated with over twice the risk of severe COVID-19; the risk was over seven times higher in health workers who work shifts. Vaccinations, therapeutic and preventative options should take into consideration not only health and key worker status but also shift worker status. FundingNational Institute for Health Research, UK Research and Innovation. Research in contextO_ST_ABSEvidence before this studyC_ST_ABSThe risk of developing severe COVID-19 is greater in occupational groups with higher levels of viral exposure, e.g. health and key workers. We searched PubMed and medRxiv up to December 8, 2020 for papers on shift work patterns, health work and incidence of COVID-19 using the keywords "COVID-19", "SARS-CoV-2", "shift work" "health worker". Recent evidence suggests shift workers are also at increased risk of severe COVID-19 but it is not clear if the risk is exacerbated in those who work shifts in healthcare. Added value of this studyThis study uses data from UK Biobank, a prospective cohort of >500,000 adults aged 40-69 years with baseline assessments between March 2006 and July 2010. Participants occupation was categorised according to whether or not they were health workers and/or shift workers at baseline. Results showed that being a health worker, or working shifts, were similarly and independently associated with over twice the population level risk of severe COVID-19 independent of age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation and co-morbidities. The risk was seven times higher in health workers with shift working patterns. The impact of health and shift work tended to be higher in males and in minority ethnic groups, who are already at an increased risk of severe COVID-19. In people over the age of retirement, the risk of developing severe COVID-19 associated with baseline health worker status was no longer apparent, suggesting the risk is likely explained by exposure to the virus. However, the elevated risk associated with baseline shift worker status persisted, albeit attenuated. Implications of all the available evidenceShift workers are at elevated risk of developing severe COVID-19. The persistence of an elevated risk in people who are now over retirement age, but had a shift worker status at baseline, suggests the risk may not be fully explained by increased exposure to the virus. Vaccination, therapeutic and prevention programmes are being prioritised for health care workers. Our data suggests that shift workers should also be prioritised for these preventive measures.